The Deceptions- An if, based on an if, is still an if
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Part 1
PART 2
Part 3
Part 4
Part 5
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Back when you could still joke about global warming before the speech Nazis intimidated people from even joking about the theory in polite society, back in those good old days people would put out Global Warming Causes lists. The list would contain hundreds of items from melting ice caps to erectile disfunction. It was simply a joke the type and number of things that Global Warming would cause, but they weren't joking.
The lists, while funny, were actually made from serious media stories on some new calamity which global warming would cause. The truly sad part though, was the media reports were based on actual scientific studies. I call these CYBER WAGS.
This is when Climate models, which are nothing more than hypothesis, are used to generate other studies of future events, which are unmeasurable and unverifiable. Computer generated Wild Ass Guesses - CYBER WAGS
The way it works is this. The climate cultist will run some new computer model that shows, for example, that temperatures and annual precipitation in Kenya will increase by a certain amount in 2050. Another group of scientist in a totally unrelated field will take these "projections" and determine how these climate changes will affect tea crops, a vital local commodity. This group of scientist will send out the warning, that a major source of income for farmers is going to be impacted significantly, negatively of course, is there any other impact from climate change? If that is all there was to the story it would be bad enough, but like most issues having to do with the climate saga...it gets worse.
No government official worth his bureaucratic badge could ignore these "scientific warnings." Further studies are done on "mitigation" strategies and it is determined that life long tea growers must begin to diversify their crops to other crops which will be better suited to the future climate. Government regulations are enacted, administrators gear up their bureaucratic machinery and local farmers who depend on tea for their livelihood are told they should begin to plant cabbage or other more sustainable crop and scale back on tea as a staple product to their very existence.
The example I just proposed is actually what happened back at the beginning of last decade. The only problem is that black tea, which Kenya is the largest producer of in the world, is a very valuable crop for a rather poor nation. The tea lobby was evidently not entirely on board so there was a slow walk in implementing the recommendations. But this is not the end of the climate battle in Kenya, climate cultist are nothing if not relentless. There is now a new report out which simply changes the dates of potential crisis from 2050 to 2075. The new report also changes one of the concerns about future tea production from too much precipitation to drought. But black tea, still Kenya's number one export crop, is in danger from climate change....someday...the models say so, just read the studies, so the pressure is still on to "diversify."
This is not some one off example, this is the world we now live in. Future forest must be saved, future ocean rise will imperil future communities which must take steps to mitigate future disasters, future bird migration patterns will be affected, future droughts will wipe out future crops, on and on it goes. The future is a place any reasonable person would want to avoid if they listen to the climate cult, their all important models and their all too often debilitating life changing recommendations.
Thousands of scientific studies have been produced on the assumption that current climate science is correct, when actually the current science is based on an if. An "if" that even climate science can neither fully explain (clouds) or quantify. The problem is that climate science, like its forecast of the future is constantly changing, and the only consistent theme is that it will be bad.
It doesn't take everyone being in on some hoax, it does not even take a host of bad actors. All that it takes is a scientific community believing fellow scientist and undertaking studies based on climate science's assumptions. Science is experiencing a new renaissance, based on a false narrative and has learned that, though it might not be scientific, false narratives can be very profitable.
Another example of the insanity, they would fill volumes, was put out by one of the nations premier institutions, Johns Hopkins University, under the auspices of their Bloomberg College of Public Health. They produced a study on future fatalities from future heat waves in Chicago. The authors are not climate scientists, they are public health experts and statisticians using the output of seven different climate models to write a widely circulated and publicized "study" on increased heat wave fatalities in Chicago between 2081 and 2100 also known as the all important future. Here is a what the lead author said about the study.
“It's very difficult to make predictions, but given what we know now—absent any form of adaptation or mitigation—our study shows that climate change will exacerbate the health impact of heat waves across a range of plausible future scenarios."
This is the kind of gobblygook on which public policy is being planned and in many cases implemented. But the true catalyst of these studies can be found at the bottom of the article which the above story comes from.
The research was supported by grants from the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences and Environmental Protection Agency.
Model simulations are not facts and scenarios are not real. If they are scientific at all they are an unproven hypothesis. The modelers can make the future be anything they want it to be. Even if they are honest in their programming, the science and the variables which go into their calculations are more complex than the human brain. We are only talking about the constantly changing ecosystem of planet Earth, over future decades. They know this, this is a disclaimer about climate models from the EPA:
It is important to recognize that projections of climate change in specific areas are not forecasts comparable to tomorrow’s weather forecast. Rather, they are hypothetical examples of how the climate might change and usually contain a range of possibilities as opposed to one specific high likelihood outcome. (EPA)
For the climate community and their well-funded enablers throughout the scientific world, the models are really all that they have. Most important of all, the model projections are the goose that keeps laying the golden egg. The model projections are what the scientific community uses to generate fear and funding to keep their self-perpetuating money machine pumping out cash. This is why the scientific community fails to follow basic scientific principles, to follow them would be to shut off the cash flow.
Nearly every discipline of science has now been infested with moral blindness or simple ignorance. Now that the older generation of scientist whom objected to this slight of hand is fading away, a new generation of "experts" has accepted the "bedrock" belief in the underlying science and just carries on. Year after year spewing out "studies" not built on the rock of a proven theory but rather on the sand of deceptive speculation.
This is why for a generation now the overriding obsessive mantra from the majority of the climate science community has been that "the science is settled." Despite the total unscientific inference of that statement, most of the rest of the scientific community has agreed to stay silent least the cash cow be slaughtered by a serious effort to "check the math."
As anyone who has ever tried to balance a check book knows, one error at the beginning of the tabulation, absolutely ensures a wrong answer at the end. So it is with the global warming theology, if the theory is illegitimate then all the studies and policies that flow from it are faulty if not completely wrong and in many cases harmful.
Eventually it will all catch up to us, and I suspect the reckoning will be needlessly painful for future generations. It is already affecting us now in ways that most people don't even recognize or realize. Perhaps someone ought to do a study on what happens when civilization prepares for heat waves....and it snows.
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"There has grown a whole industry of taxpayer-funded climate modelers whose equations can’t reproduce last week’s weather let alone past climate change at all, but whose crystal balls universally forecast impending disaster (and of course the urgent need for more research money)."
Brian Prat, Professor Sedimentology, Paleontology-Geology at the University of Saskatchewan
MY LIST OF SOME THINGS THAT WON'T HAPPEN
Wolverines in the continental United States could be wiped out by the end of the century if temperatures continue to rise, according to a new study from a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research.
Using climate models, they determined that if carbon emissions remain high by 2050, the number of reliable crop growing days would fall below 90 for almost 1 million square kilometers of arid and semi-arid lands in Africa.
If the models prove accurate, Rock says that, "In 100 years, New England’s cooler regions will no longer promote the growth of sugar maples, which are well adapted to the region’s current climate. This climate will support species that now grow to the south and in lower elevations, especially oaks and southern pines. On average, trees can only move their range from 10 to 25 kilometers over a 100-year period, and the current rate of climate change will not allow enough time for trees to ‘migrate’ northward in a smooth transition."
“With this kind of temperature change, about 60 to 96 percent of the high-elevation disease refuges would disappear,” said Atkinson. For example, available high-elevation forest habitat in the low-risk disease zone would likely decline by nearly 60 percent at Hanawi Natural Area Reserve on Maui to as much as 96 percent at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge on Hawaii Island. On other islands, such as Kauai, with lower elevations and no low-risk zones even now, predicted temperature changes would likely be catastrophic for remaining honeycreeper species.
Scientists predict 14-24% reduction in fish size by 2050 as ocean temperatures increase Global warming is likely to shrink the size of fish by as much as a quarter in coming decades, according to a groundbreaking new study of the world's oceans. The reduction in individual fish size will be matched by a dwindling of overall fish stocks, warned scientists, at a time when the world's growing human population is putting ever greater pressure on fisheries."It could be worse than that," said Prof Callum Roberts, at the University of York, who described the research as the most comprehensive to date. Roberts, who was not one of the study's authors,...
Climate change is the only variable threat to the sheep, making them good subjects for a mathematical model aimed at predicting the effects of such change, Brook and fellow researchers from Germany, the United States and Mexico said. One part of the model simulates the effect of increased drought on the sheep's population, drought being a side-effect of climate change.
California’s Central Valley currently grows $9 Billion dollars worth of apples, walnuts, cherries, prunes, peaches, pistachios and almonds. The study is the result of work on climate modeling based on the effects of likely climate change in California’s Central Valley. Temperatures have been rising a degree Fahreneheit for the last 30 years in California. Researchers project that the region will lose more than half its winter chill by the year 2100. Within a century, warm winters will end production of these fruit and nut crops.
Forecasting profound changes to all Arctic ecosystems "fuelled by human-induced global warming," the U.S.-led team of scientists has mapped the expected vanishing of moss- and lichen-covered land across much of the Canadian North, where up to 44 per cent of the terrain now classified as tundra could be replaced by invading boreal forest or shrub environments by 2099.
They coupled these models to projections of Arctic climate changes, especially forecasts of sea ice conditions. They calculated the interplay of all these factors – some 10,000 simulations – to estimate the probabilities of future polar bear population growth or decline. Through their study, Caswell, Hunter, and their colleagues were able to link Arctic sea ice directly to population growth
Some European birds will have to fly further as global warming shifts their breeding grounds northwards in the biggest challenge to the tiny migrants since the Ice Age, scientists said on Wednesday.
Sea levels along the U.S. northeastern coastline could rise nearly twice as fast during this century than previously predicted, according to new research conducted by the Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) at Florida State University. COAPS scientist Jianjun Yin, who led the research, analyzed ten climate models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and calculated a 90 percent likelihood that sea levels along the northeast will exceed global sea levels by the end of the century.
Climate change in the U.S. Southwest likely will eliminate Joshua trees from 90 percent of their current range in 60 to 90 years, a U.S. ecologist says. Ken Cole of the U.S. Geological Survey and colleagues used models of future climate, an analysis of the climatic tolerances of the species in its current range, and the fossil record to project the future distribution of Joshua trees, a USGS release said Thursday.
They coupled these models to projections of Arctic climate changes, especially forecasts of sea ice conditions. They calculated the interplay of all these factors – some 10,000 simulations – to estimate the probabilities of future polar bear population growth or decline. Through their study, Caswell, Hunter, and their colleagues were able to link Arctic sea ice directly to population growth
Yin and colleagues analysed climate projections from a set of global climate models under a variety of greenhouse-gas emission scenarios. They find that sea levels in the North Atlantic Ocean adjust to the projected slowing of the meridional overturning circulation. Their model projection attributes 15-23 cm of the rise in New York sea level by the year 2100 to changes in the North Atlantic Ocean circulation, compared with 36-51 cm of total sea-level rise in this location......”
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