AS SEEN ON TWITTER 9/11/2020

"I was once like you are now"

It's always been the same, same old story

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I have always thought that "Father and Son" by Cat Stevens was one of the best rock and roll ballads of all time. There are others for sure "Mr. Bojangles" comes to mind. But "Father and Son" besides being a beautiful melody and a great feat of vocal transition which makes you actually feel as if you are listening to a duet rather than just Stevens, also touches on something that is ageless. The wisdom of age and experience counseling the restless energy of youth. I always feel like the Father knows his advice will not be taken, but he is duty bound to give it.

Interesting enough, I thought about the song while I was reading a PEW Research article on voting demographics, I know weird. One thing that has always interested me is how often times people's attitudes and political beliefs change as they grow older. A quote falsely attributed to Winston Churchill, nonetheless captures this idea of transformation.

‘If you’re not a liberal when you’re 25, you have no heart.  If you’re not a conservative by the time you’re 35, you have no brain.’

I don't actually buy into that, I've known many old liberals with too much brain and not enough heart, but it captures the essence of the transformation that occurs in many, myself included. When I was 25 I was a liberal and by the time I was 35 I was well on my way to becoming a conservative. When I was 21 I voted for Carter, at 25 I did it again, that was the last Democrat I ever voted for President. With everything seeming to be fixed in stone it is always good to remember that people, as I did, can change over time.

The particular PEW article which got all this rolling around in my brain...and my heart was their quite extensive voter analysis that they do between elections. I guess it is meant to sort of point the way to the next election. It is a massive two year long polling endeavour that just came out recently. Reading it this is what made me think of Cat Stevens and his ballad. (Emphasis mine)

Generation continues to be a dividing line in American politics, with Millennials more likely than older generations to associate with the Democratic Party. However, over the past few years the Democratic Party has lost some ground among Millennials, even as it has improved its standing among the oldest cohort of adults, the Silent Generation. Gen Xers and Baby Boomers have seen less change in their partisan preferences and remain closely divided between the two major parties.

At first that did not really catch my attention. A little further on though, I came across this:

However, there have been notable shifts in leaned party affiliation within generations by gender in recent years.

Millennial women voters are 10 points less likely to identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party than they were in 2017. While the Democratic Party still holds a wide 60% to 31% advantage among this group, it’s significantly smaller than it was in 2017 (70% to 23%), which was a high-water mark for the party among this group.

How is this even possible in the age of Trump? As I mentioned the research for this was done from 2018 until it was published recently, it is not a mere "snapshot in time" poll but rather a scientific study of the American electorate.Then it occured to me, millennials are growing older. Generations don't stagnate nor are they replenished. Once you are in one, you are in it until the end, you don't graduate to another generation, you just get older. Millennials are defined as that generation born between 1981-1996. This would mean that in 2016 they would have been between 20-35 year old. In 2020 they will be 24-39.

"Find a girl settle down, if you want you can mary,"

Something which was all the rage for years but is seldom mentioned anymore when discussing voters is the "marriage gap." It was a fairly well established fact that married people tended to be more conservative and thus vote Republican than unmarried people who were more likely to vote Democrat. You can't even find polling on this anymore, none that is not at least ten years old. I think part of this because when it comes to marriage, for the last decade the entire media has been consumed with same sex marriage and that has garnered all the attention.

There is a very simple explanation for this transformation. When you are a single young adult you identify as a member of a group. As a single person you see your future tied to the group you most relate to, your peers, your age group. This is even more pronounced among women, it is known as “gender linked fate.” However when you marry, this linkage changes from a group, to family. Abortion, for example, is a major issue for singles, again especially women, but it diminishes greatly in importance in a family setting. Many things that were important in a single 21 year old's life, cease to have much significance to 35 year old with a spouse and a child, priorities change thus attitudes change.

For you will still be here tomorrow, but your dreams may not

When I think society is coming apart at the seams, that the younger generation is protesting and tearing down some of the ideals I hold dear, it is important for me to remember that many of the same people that make up the "right's" most reliable voters were once in the streets as well. Perhaps this time is different, sadly in some ways it is, but I doubt that human nature has changed all that much, which means there is hope for an eventual change of heart. According to PEW it may already be in progress.

Young people still have the same desires that I did. They want to fall in love and marry. They want to have children and families and a place to call their own with people they love, I doubt that has changed much. And that has the power to change anyone.

Look at me, I am old, but I'm happy

The Only Poll That Matters

Biden has multiple paths to defeat

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There is an old saying that the only poll that matters is on election day. That is an undeniable truth. Twice in my life I have been surprised on election day, 1980 and 2016. The reason I was surprised, were the polls leading up to the election.

In November's presidential election, everyone knows that the outcome is going to be decided in a few "battleground" states. These few states will determine who is president, everything else is just chatter and the news media trying to create "drama" in order to create excitement thus ratings. When it comes down to it there really are only a few true battleground states, far less than the media would have you believe, again drama and ratings. Below is the Real Clear Politics electoral map. The gray states are supposedly "battleground " or "toss up" states.

Since this is from RCP's polling section, these state's status is based on polling. Polling is based on presumed turnout, who shows up to actually vote, in person or not. This can be manipulated to get whatever result the pollster, or their clients, wish. Even reputable and accurate polls are as they say "only a snapshot in time." But you know what cannot be manipulated and is not a snapshot in time? Past elections.

Past elections are the vote, and it seems would be the best indicator of how a state will vote in the future,. Even more so with a closely divided electorate where people are polarized in their positions. Since there are elections other than for President, I decided to develop my own battleground state analysis. In other words what states are "red" and what states are "blue" not based on polls but on people actually showing up to vote... "the only poll that matters."

First I will put up a blue state and a red state to explain my methodology:

I gave each party that won a statewide election, US Senators and Governor, 5 points to that party. Regardless of the size of state or their delegations, I gave every state 10 point for their House delegation, 10 points each for the Upper and Lower Chamber of each state's General Assembly and then gave the party their percentage of those delegations. For example Pennsylvania has 18 House members, 9 Republicans and 9 Democrats so each has 50% of the delegation so each got 5 points.Finally I gave 2 points for whichever party the state voted for in the last Presidential election. Using this method, the absolute most partisan score a state could receive would be 42, which would mean a 100% partisan delegation for the House and State General Assembly, not happening.

Now let's look at the "battleground" states and see how they rank.

As I said this is not a poll, this is how these states have actually voted, and except for a couple US Senators, they have all voted for this outcome over the past four years. To consider Missouri a battleground when, in recent elections, it shows a partisan rating almost identical to that of Massachusetts seems a bit odd. I would suggest that any state having a score over 30 (Missouri) using this methodology is not really a battleground. I would also say that any state that has a score over twenty (New Hampshire, Minnesota*, Florida, Texas, Georgia and Nevada) is more than likely going to vote for that party.

People will argue about Florida just out of habit, but although their elections are often close, they always end up voting Republican in statewide elections. Florida is put in the swing category because the electorate is so closely divided, the vote not so much. I think the same can be said about Ohio, it really isn't much of a swing state anymore, except for one Senator it is pretty red. Trump won Ohio in 2016 by 8.1%, that is actually bordering on blow out territory.

So what are the true battleground states? I would say they are Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona and Michigan. North Carolina and Iowa are iffy battleground status at best. There are also what I would call the wild card states because they could flip and not because of some blow out on either side, but just because they are on the edge. They are Arizona and Minnesota. Both states have been moving "the other way" for awhile now. With all the talk about Trump barely winning in the states that flipped for him in 2016, Hillary just barely won in Minnesota.

The real issue is this, are multiple states which voted for Trump in 2016 going to switch in 2020? Despite the popular narrative based on questionable polling, it is Biden who must change the status quo. Look how these states have voted recently. Consider this, let us assume that Trump wins the states he won and Biden wins the states Hillary won, what has to happen for Biden to win?

• Biden Wins Florida and Iowa and-Trump Wins election

• Biden Wins Michigan and North Carolina-Trump Wins

• Biden Wins Pennsylvania and North Carolina-Trump Wins

• Biden Wins Pennsylvania and Michigan-Trump Wins

• Biden Wins Michigan and Arizona-Trump Wins

• Biden Wins Pennsylvania and Arizona-Trump Wins

• Biden Wins Wisconsin and Arizona-Trump Wins

• Biden Wins Wisconsin and Michigan-Trump Wins

• Biden Wins Wisconsin and Pennsylvania-Trump Wins

• Biden wins Arizona and North Carolina-Trump Wins

• Biden Wins Arizona, Wisconsin and North Carolina-Trump Wins

• Biden Wins Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Iowa-Trump wins

There are more but you see the problem Biden has. If Trump holds Florida and Texas, probable, Biden has to win three or more states that Hillary did not. Even winning two of the three biggest prizes Michigan and Pennsylvania or either of those and North Carolina, does not do it for Joe.

There is only one Trump state that Biden could win on its own that would give Biden the election-Texas. After that it becomes multiple states and without Florida it becomes three or more states. Even if Biden could win Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona, it would be a tie and Trump would win in the House, because it would be one state one vote and Republicans control more states.

When you hear politicos talking about multiple paths to victory, this is it, and the states are on Trump's side. If Trump should win Minnesota, possible, then his pathway becomes pretty unbeatable.

It should be an interesting election night.