"I was once like you are now"

It's always been the same, same old story

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I have always thought that "Father and Son" by Cat Stevens was one of the best rock and roll ballads of all time. There are others for sure "Mr. Bojangles" comes to mind. But "Father and Son" besides being a beautiful melody and a great feat of vocal transition which makes you actually feel as if you are listening to a duet rather than just Stevens, also touches on something that is ageless. The wisdom of age and experience counseling the restless energy of youth. I always feel like the Father knows his advice will not be taken, but he is duty bound to give it.

Interesting enough, I thought about the song while I was reading a PEW Research article on voting demographics, I know weird. One thing that has always interested me is how often times people's attitudes and political beliefs change as they grow older. A quote falsely attributed to Winston Churchill, nonetheless captures this idea of transformation.

‘If you’re not a liberal when you’re 25, you have no heart.  If you’re not a conservative by the time you’re 35, you have no brain.’

I don't actually buy into that, I've known many old liberals with too much brain and not enough heart, but it captures the essence of the transformation that occurs in many, myself included. When I was 25 I was a liberal and by the time I was 35 I was well on my way to becoming a conservative. When I was 21 I voted for Carter, at 25 I did it again, that was the last Democrat I ever voted for President. With everything seeming to be fixed in stone it is always good to remember that people, as I did, can change over time.

The particular PEW article which got all this rolling around in my brain...and my heart was their quite extensive voter analysis that they do between elections. I guess it is meant to sort of point the way to the next election. It is a massive two year long polling endeavour that just came out recently. Reading it this is what made me think of Cat Stevens and his ballad. (Emphasis mine)

Generation continues to be a dividing line in American politics, with Millennials more likely than older generations to associate with the Democratic Party. However, over the past few years the Democratic Party has lost some ground among Millennials, even as it has improved its standing among the oldest cohort of adults, the Silent Generation. Gen Xers and Baby Boomers have seen less change in their partisan preferences and remain closely divided between the two major parties.

At first that did not really catch my attention. A little further on though, I came across this:

However, there have been notable shifts in leaned party affiliation within generations by gender in recent years.

Millennial women voters are 10 points less likely to identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party than they were in 2017. While the Democratic Party still holds a wide 60% to 31% advantage among this group, it’s significantly smaller than it was in 2017 (70% to 23%), which was a high-water mark for the party among this group.

How is this even possible in the age of Trump? As I mentioned the research for this was done from 2018 until it was published recently, it is not a mere "snapshot in time" poll but rather a scientific study of the American electorate.Then it occured to me, millennials are growing older. Generations don't stagnate nor are they replenished. Once you are in one, you are in it until the end, you don't graduate to another generation, you just get older. Millennials are defined as that generation born between 1981-1996. This would mean that in 2016 they would have been between 20-35 year old. In 2020 they will be 24-39.

"Find a girl settle down, if you want you can mary,"

Something which was all the rage for years but is seldom mentioned anymore when discussing voters is the "marriage gap." It was a fairly well established fact that married people tended to be more conservative and thus vote Republican than unmarried people who were more likely to vote Democrat. You can't even find polling on this anymore, none that is not at least ten years old. I think part of this because when it comes to marriage, for the last decade the entire media has been consumed with same sex marriage and that has garnered all the attention.

There is a very simple explanation for this transformation. When you are a single young adult you identify as a member of a group. As a single person you see your future tied to the group you most relate to, your peers, your age group. This is even more pronounced among women, it is known as “gender linked fate.” However when you marry, this linkage changes from a group, to family. Abortion, for example, is a major issue for singles, again especially women, but it diminishes greatly in importance in a family setting. Many things that were important in a single 21 year old's life, cease to have much significance to 35 year old with a spouse and a child, priorities change thus attitudes change.

For you will still be here tomorrow, but your dreams may not

When I think society is coming apart at the seams, that the younger generation is protesting and tearing down some of the ideals I hold dear, it is important for me to remember that many of the same people that make up the "right's" most reliable voters were once in the streets as well. Perhaps this time is different, sadly in some ways it is, but I doubt that human nature has changed all that much, which means there is hope for an eventual change of heart. According to PEW it may already be in progress.

Young people still have the same desires that I did. They want to fall in love and marry. They want to have children and families and a place to call their own with people they love, I doubt that has changed much. And that has the power to change anyone.

Look at me, I am old, but I'm happy