Biden has multiple paths to defeat
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There is an old saying that the only poll that matters is on election day. That is an undeniable truth. Twice in my life I have been surprised on election day, 1980 and 2016. The reason I was surprised, were the polls leading up to the election.
In November's presidential election, everyone knows that the outcome is going to be decided in a few "battleground" states. These few states will determine who is president, everything else is just chatter and the news media trying to create "drama" in order to create excitement thus ratings. When it comes down to it there really are only a few true battleground states, far less than the media would have you believe, again drama and ratings. Below is the Real Clear Politics electoral map. The gray states are supposedly "battleground " or "toss up" states.
Since this is from RCP's polling section, these state's status is based on polling. Polling is based on presumed turnout, who shows up to actually vote, in person or not. This can be manipulated to get whatever result the pollster, or their clients, wish. Even reputable and accurate polls are as they say "only a snapshot in time." But you know what cannot be manipulated and is not a snapshot in time? Past elections.
Past elections are the vote, and it seems would be the best indicator of how a state will vote in the future,. Even more so with a closely divided electorate where people are polarized in their positions. Since there are elections other than for President, I decided to develop my own battleground state analysis. In other words what states are "red" and what states are "blue" not based on polls but on people actually showing up to vote... "the only poll that matters."
First I will put up a blue state and a red state to explain my methodology:
I gave each party that won a statewide election, US Senators and Governor, 5 points to that party. Regardless of the size of state or their delegations, I gave every state 10 point for their House delegation, 10 points each for the Upper and Lower Chamber of each state's General Assembly and then gave the party their percentage of those delegations. For example Pennsylvania has 18 House members, 9 Republicans and 9 Democrats so each has 50% of the delegation so each got 5 points.Finally I gave 2 points for whichever party the state voted for in the last Presidential election. Using this method, the absolute most partisan score a state could receive would be 42, which would mean a 100% partisan delegation for the House and State General Assembly, not happening.
Now let's look at the "battleground" states and see how they rank.
As I said this is not a poll, this is how these states have actually voted, and except for a couple US Senators, they have all voted for this outcome over the past four years. To consider Missouri a battleground when, in recent elections, it shows a partisan rating almost identical to that of Massachusetts seems a bit odd. I would suggest that any state having a score over 30 (Missouri) using this methodology is not really a battleground. I would also say that any state that has a score over twenty (New Hampshire, Minnesota*, Florida, Texas, Georgia and Nevada) is more than likely going to vote for that party.
People will argue about Florida just out of habit, but although their elections are often close, they always end up voting Republican in statewide elections. Florida is put in the swing category because the electorate is so closely divided, the vote not so much. I think the same can be said about Ohio, it really isn't much of a swing state anymore, except for one Senator it is pretty red. Trump won Ohio in 2016 by 8.1%, that is actually bordering on blow out territory.
So what are the true battleground states? I would say they are Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona and Michigan. North Carolina and Iowa are iffy battleground status at best. There are also what I would call the wild card states because they could flip and not because of some blow out on either side, but just because they are on the edge. They are Arizona and Minnesota. Both states have been moving "the other way" for awhile now. With all the talk about Trump barely winning in the states that flipped for him in 2016, Hillary just barely won in Minnesota.
The real issue is this, are multiple states which voted for Trump in 2016 going to switch in 2020? Despite the popular narrative based on questionable polling, it is Biden who must change the status quo. Look how these states have voted recently. Consider this, let us assume that Trump wins the states he won and Biden wins the states Hillary won, what has to happen for Biden to win?
Biden Wins Florida and Iowa and-Trump Wins election
Biden Wins Michigan and North Carolina-Trump Wins
Biden Wins Pennsylvania and North Carolina-Trump Wins
Biden Wins Pennsylvania and Michigan-Trump Wins
Biden Wins Michigan and Arizona-Trump Wins
Biden Wins Pennsylvania and Arizona-Trump Wins
Biden Wins Wisconsin and Arizona-Trump Wins
Biden Wins Wisconsin and Michigan-Trump Wins
Biden Wins Wisconsin and Pennsylvania-Trump Wins
Biden wins Arizona and North Carolina-Trump Wins
Biden Wins Arizona, Wisconsin and North Carolina-Trump Wins
Biden Wins Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Iowa-Trump wins
There are more but you see the problem Biden has. If Trump holds Florida and Texas, probable, Biden has to win three or more states that Hillary did not. Even winning two of the three biggest prizes Michigan and Pennsylvania or either of those and North Carolina, does not do it for Joe.
There is only one Trump state that Biden could win on its own that would give Biden the election-Texas. After that it becomes multiple states and without Florida it becomes three or more states. Even if Biden could win Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona, it would be a tie and Trump would win in the House, because it would be one state one vote and Republicans control more states.
When you hear politicos talking about multiple paths to victory, this is it, and the states are on Trump's side. If Trump should win Minnesota, possible, then his pathway becomes pretty unbeatable.
It should be an interesting election night.
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