Hint, It is not masks.
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The IHME model is probably the most quoted Covid-19 model out there. When there is a change to it the media and the alarmist rush out to claim whatever dire prediction they can find in it. Lately, it has been used to make all sorts of claims on how many lives we could save if we would all just wear mask. Here is an example from a September, 26 Newsweek Headline.
If 95 Percent of Americans Wear Masks, 100,000 Lives Can Be Saved by January 1: IHME Report
Because I'm a nerd, I periodically take screenshots of the IHME model projections. Here is one I took on September 18, in order to see what their projection would be for election day. This is the model run that Newsweek was referring to.
IHME SCREENSHOT September 18,2020
Please note at the top they forecast 415,090 total deaths for January 1, 2021. Every month they push their projection out another month, so the current projections which I took a screenshot of today shows until February. So the top of page number of 389,087 is through February and is still 26,000 lower than the previous projection. However, you will note on the new forecast for January 1, 2021, is 316,954. This is over 98,000 less deaths than were projected just one month ago.
IHME SCREENSHOT October 19, 2020
But let's look at masks. First the projection of total deaths on election day if we had enacted (mandated) universal mask use a month ago compared to the projection today for election day in two weeks.
IHME SCREENSHOT September 18,2020
IHME SCREENSHOT October 19, 2020
As you can see, a month ago IHME projected 3,500 more deaths even with mandatory masks than is now projected without them. Their projection for six weeks out dropped 27,000 in just four weeks.
In one month, the "go to" model which governments and media look to for covid projections not only lowered their projection for deaths at the end of the year by 100,000, they forecast more deaths wearing masks than they do now without masks for election day. This constant juggling of numbers which are jumped on to spread alarm, then later adjusted without comment is a disgrace, yet these wildly fluctuating projections are what are used to generate public health policy.
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