The 2020 Election
This is my first post about the 2020 election, and as such I am going to limit it both in length and content. First I am only going to look at the Presidential race, since being this far out and everything, meaning the United States, is quite volatile and as they say things could change a thousand times before November 3rd, and probably will.
Let me begin, by saying that I am assuming it will be Trump vs. Biden, but I believe there is at least a 40% chance that Biden is not the Democrat's candidate. It is entirely possible that his cognitive decline will be such that the Democrats will simply have to replace him. If that should happen it will get crazy and here's wondering what the process would end up being to do so. The DNC would have the final say but can you imagine what the Sanders crowd will do if they go to replace Biden and Bernie is not the guy? Although I could see Bernie backing out of the discussion, I don't think he ever really wanted the job anyway.
If it is Biden and Trump then there are only four possible outcomes:
Trump narrowly wins (Anything less than Trump's win in 2016)
Trump wins in landslide (Anything larger than his win in 2016)
Biden wins narrowly (Anything less than Trump's win in 2016)
Biden wins in a landslide (Anything larger than Trump's win in 2016)
I believe number four is off the table for now. I believe this for several reasons.
First, there is the power of the incumbent factor. The incumbent almost always has an advantage and right now I think it is still there and will, without some significant event, grow in importance for Trump.
Second, it's the economy stupid still applies. American's in general do not blame Trump for the downturn post covid-19 and if he remains the person that a majority of voters believe is better on the economy he should win. Reagan beat Carter not only because the economy sucked, but because Carter had no new plan to lift it out of the funk it was in, Reagan did. The opposite is true now, the challenger, Biden's plan is nothing new, raise taxes, green new deal, medicare for all etc. whereas Trump is running on a record, pre covid-19 of economic success.
Third, Biden is a terrible candidate and he has locked himself into a terrible VP pick that won't help him. The only candidate that might be in the running still who could help him electorally is Whitmer the Governor of Michigan, none of the African American women on the list expand his base or add a great deal of excitement to his campaign. I believe the VP pick will be Susan Rice, not because Biden really wants her, but because Obama does. I just do not see Biden winning by running a campaign that hides from the public. The Democrats seem to think they can win on Trump hatred, that won't work, they have to have a message. The problem is even if they have one, they don't have a messenger that can deliver it.
Fourth, Trump has an extremely loyal base which if anything has expanded since last election. He has gained more voters than he has lost. It wold surprise me if he doesn't have the largest African American support for a Republican in decades, which he will need to offset suburban women loses.
At this point I think it will be a close election with Trump winning. But that's today.
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