A TRIP AROUND THE GREAT LAKES
Either The President of the United States is a spoiled child not wanting to give up the Presidency, OR, we are witnessing the greatest political scandal in history. Or both.
Over the next few days I am going to look at the election to see if I can discern what exactly has happened. Of course since I want Trump to win, this will inevitably be a biased presentation, for this reason I am going to try to just look at actual events that can be viewed or data that can be checked.
According to exit polls Donald Trump has done very well (relatively speaking) with Non-White this election cycle. The figure that is going around at this early stage is 19% which would be the highest amount since 1960. The exact number will take months to determine, if we can trust them. Given this, we ought to see election results in cities with large non-white population reflecting this. This is one of the metrics I will use to parse election results to see if there are....problems. I am not going to worry about suburbs, the figures I post will just be for the county the city is in, the true inner city areas. These are Democrat run cities, but more importantly I will note if there has been any change in the State's governor, the people who are in charge of counting the votes. As I have pointed out before, the following state governors have flipped from Republican to Democrat since 2016. Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Nevada This is obviously an important development, it shouldn't be, but it is.
I am sorry but there is no way to explain this except with numbers.
Let's start with biggest of them all,
Chicago (Cook County) 43.73% Non-white - No change in governor party
% of Vote
2016 Hillary 73.9% Trump 20.8% Democrat +53.1%
2020 Biden 72.8% Trump 25.7% Democrat +47.1%
Trump Pick up 6%
Raw Vote Difference
2016 Hillary + 1,158,659
2020 Biden + 875,659
Trump Pick up 283,508 votes
As you can see, although Chicago (Cook County) still went heavily for Biden, Trump was able to make large inroads which is in keeping with the shift in non-white votes.
Next we will go to cities in states that Trump won in 2016 and 2020 which have not changed parties for governor (Republican). We will start with Mike Pence's home state of Indiana.
Gary (Lake County) 35.6 Non-White
% of Vote
2016 Hillary 55.7% Trump 41.7% Democrat +20.4%
2020 Biden 56.8% Trump 40.9% Democrat + 15.1%
Trump Pick up +5.3%
Raw Vote Difference
2016 Hillary +44,310
2020 Biden +33,068
Trump Pick up 11,242
Then there is Ohio again no change in governor's party (Republican)
Cleveland (Cuyahoga County) 36.4 Non-White
% of Vote
2016 Hillary 65.4% Trump 30.3% Democrat +35.1%
2020 Biden 65.39% Trump 32.29% Democrat +33.3%
Trump Pick up + 1.8%
Raw Vote Difference
2016 Hillary +214,060
2020 Biden +207,226
Trump Pick up 6,834
Toledo (Lucas County) 22.5 Non-White
% of Vote
2016 Hillary 55.7% Trump 38.1% Democrat +17.6%
2020 Biden 57.5% Trump 40.9% Democrat +16.6%
Trump Pick up + 1%
Raw Vote Difference
2016 Hillary +35,135
2020 Biden +32,361
Trump Pick up 2,774
You can see that Trump obviously did better in these cities than he did in 2016, the same will hold true across the nation, with some very meaningful exceptions.
Let's look at some those exceptions in cities on the "lakes" where Trump lost and the governor switched party from Republican to Democrat. We will start with Motown.
Detroit (Wayne County) 47.7 Non-White
% of Vote
2016 Hillary 66.4% Trump 29.3% Democrat +37.1%
2020 Biden 68.09% Trump 30.7% Democrat +38.2%
Trump Loss -1.1
Raw Vote Difference
2016 Hillary +290,451
2020 Biden +322,223
Trump Loss -31,772 votes
Wisconsin was another state that switched from a Republican to a Democrat administration and Biden carried was Wisconsin.
Milwaukee (Milwaukee County) 39.4 Non-white
% of Vote
2016 Hillary 65.6% Trump 28.6% Democrat +36.9%
2020 Biden 69.4% Trump 29.4% Democrat +40.9%
Trump Loss - 4%
Raw Vote Difference
2016 Hillary +162,753
2020 Biden +182,876
Trump loss -20,123 votes
By the way Wisconsin went for Biden by just over the 20,000 votes.
The bigger issue here is that cities with similar demographics in the same region of the country are showing dramatically different trends. How is this happening? How is that Trump makes dramatic gains in Chicago, not in a swing state, yet less than an a two hour drive away in Milwaukee, he has dramatically different results. The difference in that two hour drive is a 10% shift. In Cook County Trump gained 6% while just up the road in Milwaukee Trump lost 4%. In that two hour drive, you would pass through three counties, Lake IL, Kenosha WI, and Racine County WI. Trump won the Wisconsin counties in both 2016 and 2020 and lost Lake County Illinois in both elections, but in both election he increase his vote. So that drive from Chicago to Milwaukee would look like this for Trump.
Cook (Chicago) +6.0%
Lake +5.2%
Kenosha +3.6%
Racine +1.8%
Milwaukee - 4.0%
Stay tuned.
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